Papers

Nonlinear pricing theory predicts that firms can extract surplus by inducing heterogeneous consumers to self-sort across price contract offers that are ex-post optimal for them. We study subscription pricing when the frictionless sorting assumption fails. Using large-scale subscription experiments conducted by Lyft, we document systematic deviations from optimal self-selection: many high-demand consumers decline subscriptions that would have saved them money, while some subscribers fail to break even. We develop a structural model of intensive-margin demand in which consumers may exhibit salience failures, forecast errors about future demand, or impulsivity. We show that subscription uptake can be recast as one-sided noncompliance in a binary-instrument framework, allowing us to leverage LATE methods to identify counterfactual outcome distributions and a novel "uptake function" linking baseline outcomes to compliance behavior. Combining experimental price variation with this identification strategy, we recover utility primitives, demand heterogeneity, and behavioral parameters. Salience failures and forecast errors play quantitatively important roles. Counterfactual analyses show that optimal subscription pricing generates substantial gains relative to linear pricing, but these gains are highly sensitive to consumer deviations from ex-post optimal choice. Implementing nonlinear pricing therefore requires not only optimal contract design for consumer screening, but also coordinated efforts to mitigate behavioral frictions.

In 2019, I put together a summary of data from my field experiments website that pertained to natural field experiments (Harrison and List, 2004). Several people have asked me for updates. In this document I update all figures and numbers to show the details for 2025. I also include the description from the original paper below.

List Experiments are widely used across the social sciences to measure sensitive attitudes and behaviors, yet no prior study has validated their estimates against an incentive-compatible behavioral measure. I conduct a field experiment with 400 subjects at a sports card show, combining List Experiment treatments for willingness to pay, one for wolf reintroduction in Yellowstone Park, one for a graded sports card, with a Vickrey second-price auction that provides a real-money benchmark. The List Experiment estimates 26% would pay $50 for the card, compared to 22% who bid at least that amount in the auction; this difference is not statistically significant. These results provide the first criterion validity test of a List Experiment and suggest the method holds promise as a parsimonious alternative to conventional stated preference approaches in settings where survey space constraints preclude standard bias-mitigation interventions.

Many ideas show remarkable returns in small-scale trials but often disappoint when scaled to broader populations and contexts. Using early childhood investment as a case study, this study develops a dynamic human capital formation model that integrates complementary skill investment with "Option C thinking" on scaling challenges. The model is stylized in the Chicago tradition: micro-founded with optimizing agents, dynamic skill production, and a policymaker evaluating scaling decisions. It formalizes how naive extrapolation from pilot studies systematically overestimates policy efficacy by ignoring "voltage drops," declining treatment effects due to unrepresentativeness at scale. The model demonstrates that optimal scaling policy requires mechanism-based design that anticipates these failures through backward induction from implementation realities. The scientific insights from a set of recent studies provide valuable perspectives on the model.

In 2019, I put together a summary of data from my field experiments website that pertained to artefactual field experiments. Several people have asked me if I have an update. In this document I update all figures and numbers to show the details for the year 2025. I also include the description from the 2019 paper below. The definition of artefactual field experiments comes originally from Harrison and List (2004) and is advanced in List (2006; 2024; 2026).

Research shows responsive caregiving enhances children's brain development, with parental knowledge predicting positive behaviors and outcomes. However, knowledge varies widely across educational levels, highlighting the need for targeted interventions. Despite evidence that this knowledge can be improved, no comprehensive metric exists for efficient assessment. We introduce SPEAK (Survey of Parent/Provider Expectations and Knowledge), a computer adaptive tool grounded in item-response theory that we created, to address this gap by measuring parental and educator knowledge across development domains with precision and speed. This paper details SPEAK's development, including domain construction, cognitive interviewing, expert review, psychometric calibration, and validity evidence. SPEAK offers a flexible, scalable solution for clinical, educational, research, and policy settings. By identifying knowledge gaps, it enables tailored interventions, supports professional development, and informs policy, ultimately improving parent-child interactions and child outcomes. Our tool bridges critical gaps in assessing child development knowledge, advancing research and cross sector collaboration to promote early childhood development worldwide.

With higher education costs consistently outpacing inflation and public funding declining, college affordability has become a critical barrier to economic mobility for middle- and low-income families. While College Savings Accounts (CSAs), or 529 plans, offer tax advantaged vehicles for college savings, their adoption patterns and educational impacts remain poorly understood. Using comprehensive administrative data from over 900,000 Illinois 529 accounts (2000-2023) linked to educational outcomes, plus complementary surveys of account owners and parents, we provide the first large-scale analysis of CSA participation and effectiveness. We find that while CSA adoption has expanded to every ZIP code in Illinois, participation remains concentrated among higher-income, more educated families. Financial literacy emerges as a key barrier: 61% of parents who could save enough to cover half of future college costs still perceive their potential savings as meaningless. Among participants, higher savings are strongly correlated with better educational outcomes, including four-year college enrollment, attendance at selective institutions, and the pursuit of post-graduate degrees. These findings suggest that targeted interventions addressing financial literacy gaps and misperceptions about modest savings could significantly expand CSA effectiveness as a tool for educational equity. Beyond state-level 529 program optimization, our findings suggest several promising avenues for federal policy coordination and institutional innovation.

Parents are crucial to children's educational success, but the role of parental education in fostering academic excellence remains underexplored. Using longitudinal administrative data covering all North Carolina public school students, we document five facts about first generation excellence gaps. We find large excellence gaps emerge by 3rd grade across all demographics and persist through high school. Yet, socioeconomic status and school quality explain only one-third of the gaps. The overarching facts reveal that excellence gaps reflect deeper challenges rooted in parental human capital that manifest early and compound over time, rather than merely consequences of socioeconomic disadvantage or school quality differences.